Why Sydney’s COVID Cases Fell Faster Than Melbourne

New South Wales’ COVID-19 cases peaked in early September with over 1,600 cases, before dropping rapidly to around 200-250 new cases a day now. By contrast, Victoria’s cases peaked in mid-October at 2,200 cases, but have plateaued around 1000 cases now. So why did Sydney’s cases drop further and faster than Melbourne’s?

There are a few key factors that make COVID outbreaks harder to control: higher population density, higher latitude, and colder and drier weather. NSW and Victoria are very similar states by many measures. However, Melbourne is a significantly colder and drier city than Sydney, making it easier for COVID-19 to spread and harder to bring case numbers down. Similarly, Sydney is a colder and drier city than Brisbane, and so requires greater restrictions to control the spread. Despite these challenges, both states have successfully controlled their epidemics through vaccination.